Bloomington, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

445
FXUS63 KMPX 191741
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1241 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms likely tonight into Friday morning, with a few
  severe thunderstorms possible.

- Severe thunderstorms likely across northern Minnesota &
  Wisconsin late Friday night, still uncertain how far south the
  risk may extend into central Minnesota & western Wisconsin.

- Hot and very humid this weekend with heat indices above 100
  degrees. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect.

- The active weather pattern continues next week with the
  potential for heavy rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Today:
A few waves of thunderstorms are expected tonight, aided by a
slow moving front dropping southwards out of northern Minnesota
& a very string low-level jet that ramps up overnight. High-
resolution models show a wide range of solutions on when
thunderstorms actually initiate, depending on the strength of
capping this afternoon & forcing along the low-level features,
so confidence is high in thunderstorms occurring but low on the
exact timing windows. The first wave could start as early as
mid-afternoon across northern Minnesota, & will be driven by
forcing along the surface front. This earlier start is more
likely across northern Minnesota where capping will be weaker,
with 7 PM - midnight being the likely timing for some of these
storms to develop and drop southwards through central Minnesota
& western Wisconsin. Strong deep shear will be present along the
front along with MLCAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg, which along
with the weak forcing means a few discrete rotating supercells
are expected. Large hail would be the main threat with these
storms, especially along & north of Interstate 94 but a few
damaging downbursts are also possible. After midnight, more
widespread thunderstorms across the area will develop as forcing
from the low- level jet reaches it`s peak. The severe threat
looks to be a little lower with these storms, although sporadic
hail & gusty winds are still possible, but locally heavy rain
becomes more likely as precipitable water values increase to
near 2". The heaviest rain from these storms overnight looks to
set up across eastern Minnesota & southwest Wisconsin where
localized amounts over 2" are likely.

Friday:
Rain from the overnight storms will linger across western
Minnesota through the morning, but otherwise heat begins
building into the area as warm advection from the low-level jet
continues & the axis of a building thermal ridge moves into
western Minnesota. Temperatures warming into the low 90s look
likely across southwest Minnesota, while lingering cloud cover &
cooler temperatures aloft will likely limit temperatures to the
70s & low 80s across central Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Very
humid dew points build across the area through the day,
potentially reaching the upper 70s across southern Minnesota.
This will allow heat index values to approach 100 across much of
far-western & south-central Minnesota, potentially warranting a
Heat Advisory. Thermal ridging continues to build into Friday
nigh with 700 mb temperatures reaching 16-18 C across most of
our area. Meanwhile to our north, a shortwave rounding the
periphery of the ridge will kick off a complex of severe
thunderstorms late tomorrow night across northern Minnesota.
Most models depict a solution where this complex follows the
periphery of the ridging& moves eastwards into northern
Wisconsin & the Great Lakes through the night, but we can`t
totally rule out that the forward propagation of the MCS dives
it more southeasterly into at least portions of central
Minnesota & western Wisconsin. Widespread damaging wind gusts
would be the primary hazards with this thunderstorm complex,
but a few tornadoes & large hail are also possible.

This Weekend:
High confidence in the forecast for excessive heat this weekend
continues, with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 degrees and
likely record warm temperatures overnight providing little
cooling relief. Guidance is in good consensus with bringing the
peak of the ridging over the area Saturday afternoon through
Sunday afternoon, with ensembles continuing to depict 850 mb &
700 mb temperatures near or at the climatological maximum for
mid-June. High dew points less-favorabler southeast winds will
limit the potential to maximize surface temperatures by mixing
down these near-record temepratures aloft, but we`re still
expecting surface temperature anomalies around 15 degrees above
normal Saturday & Sunday. This would suggest temperatures in the
low to mid 90s are likely, with upper 90s possible across
southwest Minnesota. Very muggy dewpoints will accompany the
heat with dew points in the mid to upper 70 likely. These
conditions will result in heat indices of 100-110 degrees during
the afternoon, likely necessitating an upgrade to an Excessive
Heat Warning for the entire area. Further exacerbating the heat
risk, the high dew points will keep temperatures warm & muggy
overnight, with multiple record warm low temperatures possible
as overnight lows likely remain in the mid-70s. This will be our
first real heat event of the season, and bodies likely aren`t
well- acclimated after a cool & rainy start to the summer, so
now is the time to consider plans to stay cool this weekend.

Next Week:
The axis of the ridge moves east of the region Sunday night,
suppressing as the jet stream increases in speed on the western
periphery of the ridge. This creates a favorable pattern for
multiple rounds of showers & thunderstorms as we fall back under
the northern periphery of the ridge & the train of shortwaves.
This pattern will give us a break from the heat and humidity,
but could lead to additional rounds of thunderstorms & heavy
rain. Flooding could also become a risk in this pattern as these
rounds of showers & thunderstorms have the potential to rain
over the same areas, depending on the placement of the jetstream
& surface boundaries. For now, ensemble guidance places the
greatest potential for heavy rain from southern Minnesota
through western Wisconsin, but all of the area will have to keep
an eye on the heavy rain threat next week. Temperatures will be
much cooler given the frequent chances for precipitation &
associated cloud cover. Most days will see highs in the 70s but
even cooler temperatures are likely where it rains during the
day.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Clouds are expected to increase through the afternoon, but cigs
will remain VFR. Still uncertainty on where late afternoon
storms may develop, but the best chances look to be across far
eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. For that reason, have
introduced -TSRA for our Wisconsin terminals through early
evening.

Overnight, storm chances increase with the help of a strong LLJ
that will also lead to some LLWS concerns for KRWF/KMKT/KMSP.
The best chance for storms will be along the I-94 corridor after
06z. Was unsure about how far west the storms will develop, so
only have a PROB30 for KAXN/KRWF. Winds will become southerly
overnight at around 10kts. A period of MVFR cigs/vis is
expected with this activity and MVFR ceilings will likely stick
around through the end of the period.


KMSP...Low chance for the development of some afternoon storms
between 21-23z. Have opted to wait and see if anything is able
to get going and adjust the TAF from there since confidence is
quite low. As mentioned above, there is much higher confidence
in the early morning round of storms with a return to VFR
conditions by late morning/early afternoon.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...VFR chc overnight MVFR/TSRA late. Wind S 10G20kts.
SAT-SUN...VFR. Wind SW 10-20G20-30kts.
MON...MVFR/RA likely, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind NW 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-
     Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-
     Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-
     Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-
     Stearns-Steele-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dye